Another battleground state, another, In one of Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities, Republican challenger Adam Laxalt and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are neck and neck. It’s a nationalized race where voters are aware of the stakes: Eight out of 10 supporters of each candidate view their vote as helping their party win Senate control.
Cortez Masto faces some of the same economic constraints as other Democratic candidates across the country. Most Nevada voters say the state’s economy is in bad shape, and she is trailing among voters, who have hurt her the most.And ,
As an incumbent, Cortez Masto’s record gives him no clear advantage among voters here: he is divided on whether the policies he supported were meant to help or hurt Nevada. Have done more. Most independents don’t think they’ve helped, and are supporting Laxalt.
In a state where the tourism industry was rocked by the COVID pandemic, a majority of voters say their finances were affected by the pandemic and the measures taken to fight it. Three in four are now finding it difficult to report higher prices, including four in 10 who say it is a hardship, which is slightly higher than the percentage of voters nationally. In addition, Nevada has some of the highest gas prices in the country, and most say it is affecting their families, with half saying the gas price hike is having a “great” effect.
Republicans have taken the lead on the economy and inflation issue in other Senate battleground contests, and here we see: Laxalt has an advantage over Cortez Masto over voters who prioritize issues that are top concerns in the state.
Laxalt has tried to link Cortez Masto to President Biden, and it’s clear why. Mr Biden’s approval rating in the state is underwater, and with more than two to one, Nevada voters say his policies have hurt the state’s economy rather than helping. Related to this, more voters say Cortez Masto will support policies that make their financial situation worse – a measure on which Laxalt is slightly above water, in contrast.
There is also the issue of crime. This is right behind the economy and inflation as a very important issue, and more voters think that Laxalt will support policies that will make them safer from crime than Cortez Masto.
The abortion issue that Cortez Masto is promoting. His leadership among voters, who call it very important, is broader than Laxalt’s, among those who prioritize the economy, but a small number of voters keep the race tight-lipped on the economy and inflation relative to abortion. attach importance.
In a state where seven-in-10 voters want abortion to be mostly legal, Cortez Masto is seen as supporting policies that protect access to abortion, while Laxalt is seen as supporting restrictions. .
There is a significant gender difference. Women are 25 points more likely than men that abortion is very important to their vote, and Cortez Masto is currently leading by 17 points among women. (She does even better among women who say abortion is too important in their vote.)
The edge of the lacault with the males roughly coincides with that of the cortez masto with that of the females.
Another factor that helps Cortez Masto is that the way voters handle themselves personally has more to do with the way they feel about Laxalt.
Latinos and other voter groups
Latino voters in Nevada have the same top problems voters do as a whole: the economy and inflation, followed by crime.
They may also specifically state that rising prices have been a hardship, with half saying gas prices have greatly affected their families. And while they make up about a fifth of the registered voters in Nevada, they are significantly less likely than white voters to say they’re definitely voting this year, blunting their potential impact on the race. .
Despite the economy and Latinos’ concern about it, Cortez Masto is currently leading by 18 points among Latino voters. But Latinos acknowledge the work she is doing as a senator, and there may be a personal connection: Two to one, she believes she supports policies that hurt Latinos. instead of helping.
Still, economic tensions could cut into the margin of Democratic support with Latinos, as she is up by a small margin compared to Latino voters when she was elected in 2016 (+29 points).
Fifty-five percent of voters say Cortez Masto would support things that help union workers—a notable notion in a state where union voters make up a relatively large proportion of the electorate. And she moves among voters who are members of a Sangh Parivar.
In contrast, six out of 10 say that Laxalt will help the wealthy, and most say that Laxalt helps white people.
Most Nevada voters say the US should be tough on immigrants trying to cross the border, rather than going easy on them. And from two to one, they say, recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have made life in the state worse rather than better – four in ten say there has been no impact in any way.
Latino voters are more mixed on the impact of both these immigrants and border policy, but a 43% majority think the US should generally be tougher on those trying to cross the border.
The race for governor of Nevada looks a lot like the race for Senate. The race is still dead, with Democrat Steve Sisolak and Republican challenger Joe Lombardo currently at 48% in vote preference.
Steve Sisolak receives a net positive, if not a particularly strong, approval rating for the work he is doing as governor. And most Nevada voters generally prefer how he handles himself personally, especially when compared to Lombardo.
Voters think Sisolak will support policies that protect abortion access, but Lombardo, who is the Clark County sheriff, has an advantage on the crime issue. More voters think it will keep him safe from crime than Sisolak says.
This CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker survey was conducted with a statewide representative sample of 1,057 registered voters in Nevada between October 14-19, 2022. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the US. Census current population survey, as well as for the 2020 presidential election. The margin of error is ±4.4 points.