House Republicans are in a position to reach 218 seats, after which they need to overturn the chamber., As of Saturday night, CBS News forecasts Republicans will win at least 214 seats, while Democrats are projected to win at least 210 seats.
In several outstanding races, Republicans are ahead. However, some toss-ups are breaking out for Democrats, and on Saturday night, CBS News estimated that Democrats flipped Washington state’s Third Congressional District, a seat the GOP favored holding.
There are currently 11 races that have not been called, and 10 of those races are considered “battleground”. Of the survivors in the battlefield districts, five were rated as “tossed up”, two were in the “likely Democrat” category, one was a “leaning Democrat” and two were “leaning Republican”.
Democratic strategists who work on this cycle in the House race say it will be a “miracle,” but that Democrats have a possible way to maintain a majority.
After this they have to win at least 8 seats out of the remaining 11 seats.
There were three “leaning Republicans” in California’s nine untold and competitive races (California’s 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 26th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th).
For Republicans, California could help them get to the edge of securing a majority — if their candidates maintain their lead.
Mitchell said that for Democrats to have any chance of taking over the House, they would have to win 22nd, 27th and 41st, all districts where the Republican incumbent is in the lead.
“If Democrats win all three of those races in California, think the odds go up that Democrats can hold on to the House. But if Democrats lose one of those three, the odds drop, they Two out of those three lose, the door slams shut,” Mitchell said.
Sarah Chamberlain, chair of the Republican Main Street Partnership Group, which works with more liberal House Republicans, said she is confident Republicans David Valladao and Ken Calvert will hold their seats.
Republicans are also ahead in another tough race: Colorado’s Third District, where GOP Representative Lauren Boebert is leading by nearly 1,100 votes with 99 percent of the results.
Democratic incumbents were projected to win three of Nevada’s seats. The Second District of Maine and the Eight-Large District of Alaska, Democrats were leaning with choice voting in two seats.
“From the maths that we’ve done – I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House],” Chamberlain said. “But it is going to be very close. This is going to happen only on one or two seats. And it shouldn’t have been I mean, it should have been a landslide, clearly.”
In the primaries, Chamberlain’s group supported Republican candidates such as Reps Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jamie Herrera-Butler, House Republicans who had been targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that forward-right candidates who defeated their mainstream Republican picks would have been more competitive in the general election.
She said the issue of candidate quality, as well as a disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, was one reason why control of the House remains so tight.
“I don’t think Trump is going away,” Chamberlain said. “We just need to make better decisions with Trump. I think some of Trump’s candidates hurt us on Tuesday. And so we need to work together as a party and move forward.”