Science

What’s left to count in the House? Can Democrats Keep the Majority?

House Republicans are in a position to reach 218 seats, after which they need to overturn the chamber. mid term election, As of Friday, CBS News forecasts Republicans will win at least 213 seats while Democrats are projected to win at least 206. In several outstanding races, Republicans are ahead.

There are currently only less than 30 races that have not been called. At least 10 seats are considered a “battleground” and there are a few other races that have remained tight since Tuesday. Sixteen of the undeclared races are in California, a reliably democratic state with several competing congressional districts in this cycle.

Democratic strategists who work on this cycle in the House race say it will be a “miracle,” but that Democrats have a possible way to maintain a majority. His path to do so would require a clean sweep of all 13 remaining undeclared seats designated by CBS News as “likely” Democrats or “Lean” Democrats. This includes nine seats in California alone, with many Democrats in a tight race.

They must then win at least 7 of the 13 seats rated by CBS News as a “toss up” or “lean Republican.”

Republicans are in the lead in six of California’s nine untold and competitive races (California’s 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 26th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th). Four of these have Republicans leading by more than 6 points, while two have margins of 1 point or less.

But at least two of them, Democratic incumbent Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levine are expected to lead after the remaining mail ballots are counted, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc.

For Republicans, California could help them get to the edge of securing a majority — if their candidates maintain their lead. If Republicans win in all of them, and this adds up to the 211 races that have been officially called for Republicans by CBS News, it would put Republicans in 217 seats—one far from the majority.

Only a fraction of the vote is reported for these districts, due to the extended time clerks have to report final results, and mail ballots posted on Election Day can be received by the following Tuesday.

Mitchell said that for Democrats to have any chance of taking over the House, they would have to win 22nd, 27th and 41st, all districts where the Republican incumbent is in the lead.

“If Democrats win all three of those races in California, think the odds go up that Democrats can hold on to the House. But if Democrats lose one of those three, the odds drop, they Two out of those three lose, the door slams shut,” Mitchell said.

Sarah Chamberlain, chair of the Republican Main Street Partnership Group, which works with more liberal House Republicans, said she is confident that Republicans Valladao and Calvert will hold their seats.

Republicans are leading in seven of the 11 remaining races designated by CBS News as “battlegrounds,” including four in California. They’re also ahead in another tough race: Colorado’s Third District, where GOP Representative Lauren Boebert is leading by nearly 1,100 votes.

Democratic incumbents are leading in three Nevada seats and two seats in the Second District of Maine and the Eight-Large District of Alaska with choice voting.

“From the maths that we’ve done – I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House],” Chamberlain said. “But it is going to be very close. This is going to happen only on one or two seats. And it shouldn’t have been I mean, it should have been a landslide, clearly.”

In the primaries, Chamberlain’s group supported Republican candidates such as Reps Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jamie Herrera-Butler, House Republicans who had been targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that forward-right candidates who defeated their mainstream Republican picks would have been more competitive in the general election.

She said the issue of candidate quality, as well as a disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, was one reason why control of the House remains so tight.

“I don’t think Trump is going away,” Chamberlain said. “We just need to make better decisions with Trump. I think some of Trump’s candidates hurt us on Tuesday. And so we need to work together as a party and move forward.”

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